Wednesday 4 April 2018

University Challenge 2017-18: Semi-Finals Preview, plus announcement about future of reviews

Well, after a somewhat slow start in the first round, this year's UC has really come to life in the knockout round, and the momentum has carried on into the group stage, and hasn't totally run out yet in spite of some rather one sided matches.

And as a result, we have a pretty well balanced semi-finals roster:
  • St John's College Cambridge (John-Clark Levin, Rosie McKeown, James Devine-Stoneman and Matt Hazell) Eased through the knockout rounds with comfortable victories over St Andrews and Corpus Christi of Cambridge; have slackened a bit in the group stage, but have still seen off strong challenges from Ulster and fellow semi-finalists Newcastle. Quite well balanced on the buzzer early on, Ms McKeown seems to have answered most of their starter in the QFs, but their bonus rate has been strong throughout.
  • Merton College Oxford (Edward Thomas, Alex Peplow, Leonie Woodland and Akira Wiberg) Stormed through all of their matches with ease thus far, with victories over King's of London, Oxford Brookes, Fitzwilliam of Cambridge and fellow semi-finalists Edinburgh. Well rounded on the buzzer, not overly reliant on any one player, and strong on the bonuses too, plus the only team to get into four figures thus far, they would appear to be the team to beat.
  • Edinburgh (John Heaton-Armstrong, Stanley Wang, Innis Carson and Phillipa Stone) Won their first two matches against Ulster and U.C.L. by just five points, and their first QF against Emmanuel of Cambridge by just fifteen; were then comfortably beaten by Merton, but recovered by a steady victory over Bristol. Again, have no real stand out buzzer, all contributing well, and their bonus rate has been steady too.
  • Newcastle (Jack Reynard, Molly Nielsen, Jonathan Noble and Adam Lowery) Started slowly against Sheffield Hallam, then hit their stride in the second round against Southampton and the prelims against Bristol; were then narrowly taken over by St John's, but recovered with a strong win over Fitzwilliam to secure a first BBC era semi-final place. Again, the team generally share the starters evenly, and their bonus work has been steadily decent as well.
In fact I've just realised, if Fitzwilliam had won on Monday, we'd have had the exact same line-up as last series: two Cambridge teams, one Oxford team and Edinburgh!

Well, the draw for the semi-finals has kept the two straight-through-comers apart, and kept teams that have already played apart, giving us a line-up of: St John's vs Edinburgh and Merton vs Newcastle. Going into the group stage knowing that would be the semi-final line-up, you'd have been daft to bet against a fifth Oxbridge final in a row, and that would probably still be the most likely outcome, but I'm not so sure. Let's take a look at both fixtures in greater detail look shall we?

Well, St John's simply ran riot throughout the knockout rounds, but seemed to not be as imperious in the semi-finals, doing most of the work against Ulster in the first half, and then only just overcoming a resurgent Newcastle. Edinburgh, meanwhile, seemed to have saved their best performances thus far for their last two games, looking respectable in the Merton defeat and then pulling their best showing out of the hat against Bristol. If they can continue that form, they could well spring a giant killing (and thus become the first Scots side to reach the final since 1984!). Mind you, St John's do have the stats in their favour, having accumulated more over four than Edinburgh have over five, and will have had an extra day off to rest before the semis.

Meanwhile, Merton have been imperious in all four matches thus far, and are, as I say, the only team to break four figures thus far, and have the most prolific starter answerer of the series thus far in Mr Peplow. However, they have drawn perhaps the form team of the group stage in Newcastle, who seem to have been steadily improving across the series and certainly seem to have the momentum. Plus, the Oxonians' win over Edinburgh was their lowest scoring thus far. Certainly, it would be the upset of the series if Newcastle manage to pull off a victory here, but you'd still be daft to bet against a Merton side who have, again, accumulated more over fewer games.

What I'm saying is, anti-Oxbridgers shouldn't get too excited about the prospect of an Edinburgh-Newcastle final, but nor should they dread a St John's-Merton final too much. Neither of these matches are as big foregone conclusions as some might believe, and we have had big upsets in the semi-finals of a series using the round robin format before. Plus, Edinburgh and Newcastle have both won matches you'd have called them the underdogs in before, they could quite easily do it again.

Whatever happens, I can only hope that the momentum the series has steadily built up since the first round doesn't run out, and we get an excellent trio of matches to end what could well be the final series I blog in this much depth.

Yep, I might as well tell you now: my preliminary decision for next series is to merge by UC and OC reviews into one shorter less detailed blog on Monday evening. The reviews have, as you may have been able to tell, become a lot harder for me to do as of late for a variety of reasons, so this change  may well resurrect the standard of my writing. It would also allow me to move on from the various stock phrases I've fallen into the habit of using over the past few years.

As I say, it's just a preliminary decision, nothing set in stone yet. I may well come back from the Spring recess feeling a lot fresher after a couple of months off and want to write a lot again. We shall see. I shall reserve making a final call until these current series are over.

Anyway, best of retrospective luck to the four UC semi-finalists, all of whom would be worthy series winners; here's to three excellent matches to finish the series!

5 comments:

  1. Thanks for your thoughts as always!

    My gut feeling, the Edinburgh St Johns match is the one that could deliver an upset. As you say John's havent quite regained the form of their earlier rounds. The teams seem matched in conversion rate but there's no mistaking Edinburgh have fairly thin margins. I feel Johns are a bit too reliant on the superb McKeown, but if the questions fall her way, and Levin for that matter, it could turn into a high scoring match. Edinburgh, show us what you've got, Johnians, yours to lose. I get the feeling both these teams are a bit 'softer' in contrast to the edgier teams in the other match.

    Newcastle- Merton? I suppose I should fall in behind the Oxonians, but if Newcastle go in guns blazing it could get interesting. I'll give advantage to Merton. Neither team takes prisoners!

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  2. Hi, Guys. I know this is all retrospective but my gut feeling is you're both being a bit harsh on St John's. The reason I'm saying this is because I don't think they'd be worried about their relatively low scores in the QFs (they were never going to lose to Ulster and Newcastle were always going to be tough), and also because if they've been reliant McKeown/ Levin, it could be argued that Merton hae been reliant on Peplow/ Wiberg in some of their matches. Now I've said this Edinburgh will probably reach the final, and I'll look silly.
    On a serious note, I think both semis have strong favourites, but there could well be an upset in either or both. Certainly I don't see Merton vs Newcastle as the foregone conclusion people are making out.

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    1. Hi Will, I think you might be right on re-reading my comment. To give some balance, I think Edinburgh were one of the weaker teams to make the QF, and their aggregate scoreline reflects this. In their favour, they are experts in 'skin of the teeth' operations which is where I think their danger comes from. I probably was a bit harsh on John's there, who sent Corpus packing on such a fat margin - but I feel my comments here and at Dave's place have shown a bit too much favouritism to the Johnians. And likewise, after saying this Edinburgh will probably win the whole thing : )

      I'll nail my colours to the mast, I'd be dissapointed not to see Merton vs John's, with Newcastle v John's grudge match as a consolation prize.

      On a lighter note :the other key questions for me: Levin, Woodland, Lowery - sartorial choices? McKeown - hair up or down?

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    2. Hi, Aethelstan. Anyone could win. I'm sure very few predicted Peterhouse winning a couple of years ago.
      McKeown definitely hair down! Up makes her look like a very no-nonsense Headteacher!

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  3. Hi Will, Indeed, just what I was thinking, the headmistress look! Was very fitting though. I can see her as a professorial type.

    Jack - I look forward to seeing your new approach later this year!

    Well, looks like we have some good matches coming up.

    I was thinking yesterday over a few glasses of wine, I wouldn't want to be in the John's teams shoes if they lose tomorrow (and worse for the Cantabs, it would be the first Cambridgeless final for quite some time). A colleague in a college that actually succeeds in getting teams through (unlike mine) related to me that there were considerable ructions from the SCR downwards when their team went down to a, shall we say, less than fancied bunch (!) a few years back.

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