University Challenge 2018-19: Grand Final Preview

Well, here we are again: another University Challenge grand final. After another excellent series played in great spirit throughout, and some some of the best team and individual performances of the decade thus far, we have our two finalists; they are:
Edinburgh: Matt Booth, Marco Malusa, Max Fitz-James and Robbie Campbell Hewson.
and
St Edmund Hall Oxford: Agastya Pisharody, Marceline Bresson, Freddie Leo and Lizzie Fry.

So, the main headline here is that a non-Oxbridge team has reached the final for the first time since 2012-13. How, then, did we end up with this final fixture?

Edinburgh comfortably defeated Sidney Sussex of Cambridge in the first round, then won a great second round contest against U.C.L. on the last starter of the game. They started the group stage with a win over Manchester, before losing their qualifier to Durham. They recovered with a narrow win over Bristol in the play-offs, and then faced Durham again in the semis, and this time it was they that emerged triumphant.

St Edmund Hall also started off with a comfortable first round victory, over York, then gave a near identical performance against Clare of Cambridge in the second round. Come the group stage, they defeated Emmanuel of Cambridge only slightly less imperiously than before, before recovering from a shaky start to beat Bristol in their qualifier. A titanic tussle against Darwin in the semis followed, ultimately securing the win and the final place on the last question of the game.

So, that's how they made it? Now lets have a look at their stats.

Edinburgh have played one game more to get this far, and have thus far acquired a total of 1,005 points, an average of 167.5 per match. St Edmund Hall, meanwhile, have 990 for an average of 198 per match. So, already, the raw stats are in their favour, considering them to have twice broken 200 comfortably in the first and second rounds, while Edinburgh have only done so once, in the first.

St Edmund Hall have also conceded slightly fewer points on average, 107 per match, to Edinburgh's 126.67 per match; even bearing in mind they have one fewer game going into that total, that still suggests a strong advantage.

When we come to the overall bonus rate, however, things fall back into Edinburgh's favour somewhat: despite having played one game fewer, St Edmund Hall have faced the exact same number of bonuses as Edinburgh, 160, and have only (I say only) answered 90 correctly, compared to Edinburgh's 103. This suggests that, should a close contest on the buzzer ensure, Edinburgh may just sneak it if that trend continues.

Speaking of which, again, despite the extra game, Edinburgh have actually answered one starter fewer than their opponents. But then, given Mr Leo's impressive buzzer form throughout, this is maybe not that surprising. Thus far, he has 41, the second highest behind Mr Golfinos' 50, while his colleagues have combined for 15. Edinburgh's stats are a bit more spread; Mr Fitz-James is actually the third best buzzer of the series thus far with 26, while his colleagues have all contributed strongly too.

This may prove key should Mr Leo have an off-day; his colleagues are certainly capable of picking up the slack, but could they do it enough should the starters fall better for Edinburgh as a whole?

The smart money, however, would likely be on St Edmund Hall to triumph. Like last year, I've set up a poll on Twitter that closes around the same time the final starts on Monday; at present, 61 have voted, and St Edmund Hall lead 69% to 31%.

Let's not underestimate Edinburgh though; as demonstrated when they defeated Durham having lost to them previously, they are more than capable of upsetting the odds. Who's to say they couldn't do it again?

Whatever happens on Monday, all we can hope for is a good contest to end the series. It's been another good one, full of twists and turns, with, as I said earlier, some superb performances both by individual players and by teams as a whole. Like the last two series, it's been a series that deserves a good close final, and hopefully, like those last two, we'll get one. Best of (retrospective) luck both teams!

Back on Monday with my write-up of the final; remember its back to 8:30, with OC back at 8. See you then, I guess.