Friday 2 November 2018

University Challenge 2018-19: First Round Review

OK, we're a bit later doing this that usual this year (events in my personal life have kinda got in the way this past month), but here we go with my usual end of first round stock take. Starting with the usual list of teams safely through to Round 2 with their scores and winning margin:
  • Warwick (165, 15)
  • Glasgow (200, 25)
  • Downing College Cambridge (230, 155)
  • Darwin College Cambridge (260, 170)
  • Clare College Cambridge (160, 10)
  • Durham (360, 305)
  • St Edmund Hall Oxford (240, 135)
  • Edinburgh (210, 135)
  • Bristol (140, 30)
  • Goldsmiths (180, 125)
  • St Peter's College Oxford (225, 175)
  • U.C.L. (180, 35)
  • Manchester (155, 20)
  • Keble College Oxford (180, 65)
Those are the raw statistics; as ever, there's more behind them.

By a long distance, the highest score of the first round, and the highest winning margin, both belong to Durham, with their 360-55 win over Strathclyde, a decent team in their own right. They, therefore, would start the round as red hot favourites whoever they face. One on one with a proven team, however, anything is possible.

Other than that, there isn't a great deal of deviation between most of the others. Darwin are next in terms of scores, followed by St Edmund Hall, Downing and St Peter's. All won their first round matches by comfortable three figure margins, but will they be able to repeat that performance against better teams?

As for the four teams who defeated the four repechage teams, all are most definitely forces to be reckoned with, Glasgow in particular. Even the first round winners with lower scores shouldn't be totally ruled out; Manchester, remember, have a tendency to start out slowly then hit their stride in the second round.

So, in conclusion, apart from Durham, there aren't any real obvious candidates for the group stage; seriously, any of the remaining teams could make it. It depends on the draw I suppose. If we get the same second round draw as last series, Goldsmiths vs St Peter's and U.C.L. vs Manchester would be the first two second round matches. One of those sounds like a foregone conclusion, the other quite a close match.

But anything can happen, as we've seen many times before. Remember the last time Durham had the highest score and winning margin of the first round? That team, 3/4 of whom were on Only Connect on Monday, didn't make the group stage, out in the second round. Anything could, and probably will, happen.

Now for those actual repechage teams...
  • Emmanuel College Cambridge (175, 25)
  • Hertford College Oxford (150, 10)
  • Exeter (150, 15)
  • King's College London (145, 35)
Now all four of those teams were narrowly defeated in the first round by teams of a very similar standard. So, what can we expect from them now?

Well, the draw will, we would imagine, pit Emmanuel vs King's and Hertford vs Exeter. Now, both of those fixtures are very much up in the air as far as I'm concerned, I can't call either. If you insist on a guess, I'd forecast wins for Emmanuel and Hertford, but, as I said, anything could happen. All I really want is a pair of excellent matches.

In fact, despite being somewhat low scoring, this has been a good first round overall. Almost every match I have something positive to say about, and, in all honesty, the group stage line-up could honest be any combination of the 18 teams still in it, depending on the draw.

Before I wrap up, some stats on gender equality you might be interested in: only four teams this series have been single gender, all male, and three of them are through to the second round. That's a definite step in the right direction as far as gender balance is concerned.

I understand institutions are being encouraged to field multi-gender teams this series; that, as far as I'm concerned, is the way to get women involved on the show. Not to force them via a BBC panel show-esque mandatory quota; the fact that the vast majority of the teams this series are mixed without one definitely shows there is no need for one.

There also nine female captains this series, which is a record for this blog's duration (the previous record being eight in 2015-16).

That's all I have to say for now; it's been a good start to the current series, and all we can hope is that that carries on into the next round!

Back on Monday with my usual write-up.

1 comment:

  1. Thanks for the summary! I would be in agreement that Emma and Hertford would seem most likely to go through. The Hertford match to my mind is the most open although I thought they were the better team on their losing match.

    Interesting stats regarding gender equality. My view is an all male final is unlikely but not impossible when you look at first round favourites* - really only one of the all male teams was outstanding (i.e. Golfinos/Darwin), although Edinburgh certainly not to be discounted! Without wanting to spoil any teams chances, I would likely tip Durham, Glasgow, Downing and Teddy. Let's see how it pans out!!

    *caveat of course that this is often unreliable!

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