University Challenge 2017-18: Grand Final Preview

Well, another year, another University Challenge grand final, and of all the grand finals I've covered on here over the years, this is, by some way, the hardest I've ever had to call. And I've had to call some very close finals. This year's grand finalists are:
St John's College Cambridge: John Clark-Levin, Rosie McKeown, James Devine-Stoneman and Matt Hazell.
and
Merton College Oxford: Edward Thomas, Alex Peplow, Leonie Woodland and Akira Wiberg.

Yep, it's a fifth Oxbridge final in a row. Last year's final was the best in years, but I fancy these two teams, both of whom have made it undefeated, to top it, somehow, if possible.

St John's made easy work of their first two matches, beating St Andrews and Corpus Christi of Cambridge in the first two rounds. The quarter-finals saw them overcome Ulster via an impressive first half performance, then win a very good close match over Newcastle, and in the semis, they pulled one of their best performances of the series out of the hat as they demolished Edinburgh.

Merton also breezed through the first two rounds, beating King's of London and Oxford Brookes comprehensively. They then recovered from a slow start to overpower Fitzwilliam of Cambridge, and then they too defeated Edinburgh comfortably and then Newcastle by a somewhat larger margin, but a similarly close match to their opponents' encounter until near the end.

So, that's their form thus far summarised, but what of the hardcore stats?

Well, St John's have accumulated 1,155 points thus far, an average of 231 per game, while Merton better that somewhat with 1,235 points, an average of 247 per game. St John's also have the lowest score acquired by these teams, 160, whereas Merton's lowest is 210. Both sides' highest score thus far is 285.

The average points conceded is more interesting: St John's have conceded 525, for an average of 105, while Merton have conceded 595, an average of 119. That's quite interesting, considering Merton have won all their matches comfortably, whereas St John's have a close win going into that total.

Now on to the stats that might just decide the final. Starting with the bonuses, both sides are pretty much even on the bonuses, both converting roughly two thirds: St John's 112 out of 178, and Merton 124 out of 186. Virtually very little in it on that front.

The buzzer stats are maybe a bit more telling: Merton's best buzzer thus far is Mr Peplow on 26, with Mr Wiberg not far behind on 22. For St John's, Ms McKeown leads the way with 25, while their next highest thus far is Mr Levin with 16. That suggests that Merton are maybe better prepared with two buzzers on +20 compared to St John's. That said, Merton have only answered three starters more than St John's thus far.

So, the majority of the raw stats will suggest a narrow Merton victory, but, literally, there's barely anything in it.

As if to prove this, I set a poll up on Twitter on Monday evening, asking who do you think would win the final; at the time of writing, 45 votes have been cast, and St John's lead 51% to 49%.

That just goes to show you how tight this grand final is to call on paper. I have found it hard to pick a winner on this blog in past years, but this year's has to be one of the tightest of all. Both sides have been absolutely brilliant this series thus far, a match between them has been long awaited, and hopefully it will live up to expectations.

Whatever happens on Monday, all I can hope is that we get a great final. This series has really turned around after a somewhat patchy first round, and hopefully the final will carry on this momentum. Best of retrospective luck (once again) to all teams!

Back next week with my recap of the UC final on Monday. OC and my usual UC retrospectives will, hopefully, follow later in the week.