University Challenge: Grand Final Preview

Well, here we are, with less than a week to go before the University Challenge final. Last year's final was in mid-March; this year, due to a few delays due to the Olympics, amongst others, we've had to wait until late April for the final. But no complaints from me on that!

And so, the two teams competing in this year's final are:
University College London: Adam Papaphilippopoulos, Tom Tyszczuk Smith, Simon Dennis, and Tom Parton.
and
Manchester: David Brice, Adam Barr, Richard Gilbert, and Debbie Brown.

How did they get this far?

Well, U.C.L. have been strong throughout, with a big win over Exeter, a close win over Jesus College Oxford, a come-from-behind win over Bangor, and an average win over New College Oxford. They also, however, defeated Manchester in the quarter-finals...

Manchester started shakily in the contest, trailing Lincoln College Oxford until, literally, the final quarter-of-a-second before the gong! But they've put that behind them, and have defeated Magdalen College Oxford, Imperial College London, St George's London and Bangor all comfortably. But, they also lost to U.C.L. in the quarter-finals...

So, they've already met, and U.C.L. were victorious (as they have been most times they've faced Manchester in recent years). So, does that make the final result a forgone conclusion? Well, I'm not sure. Lets take a look at their stats.

U.C.L. have played one match less than Manchester, and have not yet been defeated. Their five match aggregate is 1,090 points, which is just 25 points less than Manchester's six match aggregate of 1,115. The average scores may be more telling: U.C.L. have averaged 218 points per match, Manchester 185.83 per match.

As for points conceded (ie, points scored by the opposition in their matches): U.C.L. have conceded 655 (an average of 131 per match), while Manchester have conceded 840 (an average of 140 per match). This may not been a fair comparison, when you consider Manchester have an extra match, and a loss going into that. But then, as calculated by Dave Clark over on LAM, last year's Manchester team conceded a lower average than their opponents (Pembroke College Cambridge), despite having an extra match, and a loss, going into it.

So, any key factors? Well, quite tellingly, U.C.L. have conceded the first starter in every match they've played in (only once through an incorrect interruption, against Manchester). In most cases, however, they have subsequently pulled out into a strong lead quickly, the exceptions being their second match against Jesus College Oxford, and the quarter-final against Bangor. They have been prone to long periods of immobilisation, as we saw in those two matches, but, when they get going, they really go for it.

Manchester's starting rate is more varied. In their first match, lest we forget, they didn't get any correct starters until ten minutes in. In their other matches, however, they have managed to get at least one starter early on, though only it doesn't always translate into an early run of momentum.

I got go into more depth with these analyses, but I won't, as I don't want to take all day. Suffice to say, both teams can really go for it when they get going, but are prone to stay stuck at times.

So, my tip for the final? Well, I suppose, if you insisted on one, I'd have to go for U.C.L., who have been the more consistent performers throughout. But, to be honest, it would not surprise me if Manchester won it either. Both have done exceptionally well this year, and both would deserve it. Though, as James Gratrex from the King's College Cambridge team, and a few others, have said, it would be nice to see another institution win it for once, rather than Manchester win it again. If they do, they'll equal Magdalen College Oxford's record tally of four wins (including the default win from a few years back).

Whatever happens, all we can hope for is a good match to end the series on. It's been an interesting series, with a handful of very good matches, and others middle-of-the-road. Whoever wins will deserve the title. Once again, best of luck to all involved.