University Challenge 2017-18: First Round Review

OK, we're at the end of the first round, so it's time for my usual look back at it, and the raw stats surrounding it. As ever, we have my list of the fourteen teams safely through to the second round, together with their scores and margins of victory:

• Edinburgh (165, 5)
• Bristol (230, 135)
• Southampton (280, 240)
• Magdalen College Oxford (185, 80)
• Warwick (240, 80)
• Oxford Brookes (175, 90)
• Trinity College Oxford (160, 15)
• Newcastle (170, 130)
• Fitzwilliam College Cambridge (200, 95)
• Strathclyde (145, 20)
• Emmanuel College Cambridge (170, 15)
• St John's College Cambridge (255, 135)
• Corpus Christi College Cambridge (225, 90)
• Merton College Oxford (285, 175)

So, those are the raw figures. Now we need to analyse them.

Well, this week's winners Merton have the highest score of the round; Southampton have the second highest and the biggest margin of victory. Those two, along with the three Cambridge teams who broke 200 against teams who broke triple figures, Fitzwilliam, St John's and Corpus Christi, would probably start as the favourites to progress.

Provided they avoid each other of course. Eagle eyed viewers will have noticed that, for the last three series, the second round matches have followed the pattern 9 vs 10 and 12 vs 13, followed by a random draw among the rest. It is no secret that this is because, since 2010-11, when the show began being filmed and in the bag before the last series ended, the first two second round matches are filmed on the same day as the teams involved's first matches.

If they carry on this format this year, Fitzwilliam would play Strathclyde, followed by St John's vs Corpus Christi. The latter of which would be a very unfortunate fixture to have at this stage.

Ignoring the prospect of pre-arranged fixtures, I would tip Merton and those three Cambridge sides to progress, provided they avoid each other. Southampton I'll need to see against a proven quantity before we earmark them as one to watch, same with other teams like Bristol and Warwick who won their first matches via better buzzing.

I would also keep an eye on Magdalen, whose teams are never worth writing off, and Edinburgh, who impressed in their narrow first round win over a strong Ulster team.

Speaking of which, here are the four play-off survivors:

• Ulster (160, 5)
• St Hugh's College Oxford (155, 15)
• University College London (145, 15)
• St Anne's College Oxford (135, 90)

So, with the exception of St Anne's, all four won closely fought matches, albeit somewhat lower scoring than other ties, but that can easily be attributed to two evenly matched teams sharing the spoils.

After some initial confusion (which led me to be half expected King's to make a late sprint for the play-offs on Monday), we now know the draw for the play-offs: Ulster will play St Anne's this coming Monday, then St Hugh's will play U.C.L. the week after.

Based on the first round performances, I'd probably tip Ulster and St Hugh's to go through, but, again, I really cannot call either match. As we know from experience, first round form is a rather poor guide to how well a team will fare second time out. As many contestants have said on Twitter, including Mr Salter of this year's Warwick team in speaking up for his first opponents, the first round of UC can be incredibly nervy for even the best of teams.

That's why the raw stats of the first round will only tell you so much about what to expect in the later rounds. We usually get at least one team who begin the second round as outsiders making the group stage, often at the expense of a team you'd have expected to beat them based on their first round form.

That's what makes us want to tune in and watch UC every week, the intrigue of what's going to happen every week. Anyone can beat anyone. Theoretically.

Well, whatever happens in the next round, I'll be watching and reporting as ever. Here's to it; I await it as eagerly as ever!

I'll be back on Monday with my usual UC write up.